friday mlb lean

We lost both our leans thurs and today 1 lean in mlb

Houston +175
St Louis: (R) BOGGS, M Houston: (R) MOEHLER, B

RickJ
Rickjshandicappingpicks.blogspot.com

thurs mlb leans

We split on Wedn winning Seattle +165 and
losing -100 with cleveland.

Today again 2 leans in mlb

Washington +260
Milwaukee: (R) GALLARDO, Y Washington: (R) MARTIN, J.D.


Houston +180
Chicago-N: (R) HART, K Houston: (R) ORTIZ, Ru

RickJ
Rickjshandicappingpicks.blogspot.com

wedn mlb leans

Nothing Tues but 2 mlb leans today

Cleveland +168
Los Angeles-A: (R) LACKEY, J Cleveland: (L) LAFFEY, A

seattle +165
Seattle: (L) ROWLAND-SMITH, R Toronto: (R) HALLADAY, R

Rick

Tues

Just when I though I was starting to be a genius again we
come up with an 0-3 day:(

Today nothing close to a lean or a play.

RickJ
Rickjshandicappingpicks.blogspot.com

Monday mlb leans and plays

We won our lean on the mets on Sunday and have a nice 3 game streak going.

Today is a rarety with 1 play and two leans:


PLAY
Oakland +300
969 OAK - T Cahill
970 BOS - J Beckett

LEANS
Pittsburgh +235
963 PIT - P Maholm
964 SFO - T Lincecum

San Diego +160
951 SDG - J Geer
952 CIN - H Bailey

Rickj
Rickjshandicappingpicks.blogspot.com

Sunday mlb lean

We won our play on cleveland +165 sat..and today 1 lean in mlb

Mets +130

905 NYM - L Hernadez
906 HOU - B Moehler

RickJ
Rickjshandicappingpicks.blogspot.com

Sat mlb lean

We won our play on tampa bay +140 on Friday..today 1 lean in mlb

Cleveland +165

973 CLE - J Sowers
974 SEA - E Bedard

RickJ
Rickjshandicappingpicks.blogspot.com

Friday mlb play

We lost our lean on Oakland Thurs and today 1 play in mlb

Tampa +140

919 TAM - M Garza
920 TOR - R Halladay

I received the following email:

"Can I assume your're looking for value (in either direction )when you have a selection? Do you have your own ratings and when a number falls in one direction and it screams good number, you have a play? "

My response: Thats correct.....if by my calculations there is value on a side I place the wager. I have my methods I use and they are similar for each sport. After 3 years the only clear cut edge appears to be in football....both nfl and college. The rest are around breakeven. But 3 years is a short run proposition..perhaps after 10 years you will get the true story:)

It dosnt have to scream.....a small edge is all I have to think I have.

RickJ
Rickjshandicappingpicks.blogspot.com

Thurs mlb lean

We lost our lean on arizona wedn and have another today..

Oakland +235

967 OAK - V Mazzaro
968 NYY - C Sabathia

RickJ
Rickjshandicappingpicks.blogspot.com

Wedn mlb lean

Finally something in mlb our first since the all star break

MLb Lean
ARizona +190


905 ARI - J Garland
906 COL - U Jimenez

Good Luck

RickJ
Rickjshandicappingpicks.blogspot.com

Tues

I was holding off to see if we could get some significant moves in the line...but that
didnt help...nothing again close today.

I received a quite a response to my post about table 40. You have to realize human nature is overwhelming in a poker room. That type of environment attracts many dysfunctional types that have issues other then to come into the room and play poker quietly win or lose.

Now there are a few intellectual types that are there for the game aspect of poker and to try to make money....but for every 1 there are 10 to 20 that are dysfunctional and delusional in there behavior and thinking.

Makes it very very tough. After 8 solid years of playing poker at the Belagio and making a reasonable earn and up until a year ago enjoying the game I am actually considering quiting.

You can play online and get 3 times the hands per hour and with multi tabling even more. You dont have to tolerate the dysfuntional personalities and importantly there is no 2nd hand smoke at home!!!

I dont need the money and do it to satisfy my competitive game playing nature. But with no support from the Bellagio in making things more comfortable and healthy I have about reached the end of my tolerance level.

Logically its a no brainer.....We will see:)

RickJ
Rickjshandicappingpicks.blogspot.com

Monday

Nothing again today...i know boring:)

RickJ
Rickjshandicappingpicks.blogspot.com

Sunday

Nothing again today....hopefully with the team matchup changes something will show up next week.

an email:

"I was out to vegas for a week during the world series and played in the omaha 8 game with you at the Bellagio. Its a great game and the Bellagio seems like a great place to play but I was wondering what possible reason there would be for the game to be on table 40? The 2nd hand smoke is terrible!!!! When I got home I had a sore throat and was coughing for a week. Dosnt any of the players realize how deadly 2nd hand smoke can be? I cant imagine being a local and playing full time at that table...it would cut at least 5 to 10 years off of your life expectancy!"

My answer:

Well......you have asked what appears to be an easy and logical question but the answer is pretty complex.

Historically there has always been an omaha 8 game at the bellagio and for most of the time it was 20 40 with a 30 60 kill. The players established as there turf long ago table 40 as the omaha 8 table due to the great view of the screens in the sports book. The game broke down 3 years ago since most of the players couldnt overcome the rake and finally gave it up.

After a 4 month no omaha game the 30 60 game with a 40 80 kill was established and it has been going everyday for 3 years now. With the higher limit the game picked up a more sophisticated player base and the grumbling over table 40 has steadily increased over the years and is reaching its pinnicle now.

There are only 2 players that are holding up the complete transition to a table away from the smoke. Both players are as dysfunctional as they come with the 1st having an extreme narcissistic personality disorder combined with sociopathic tendencies and the 2nd being a complete trouble maker who was kicked out for a few weeks a few months ago but now is back causing trouble.

Now it would seem to be an easy task to get the table moved if only 2 players out of the many insisted on table 40. Not so....the house so far for whatever unknown reason is not very sympathetic to the players request not to be exposed to 2nd hand smoke.

The players have made there plea more then once and it falls back to whoever starts the game chooses the table. Well...guess who is there early to make sure the game is started on table 40....the 2 players! As the Narcissistic player told the floor when asked why 40 since there is smoke there....he replied...well I only play a few hours a day.

So....my guess is many players are going to stop playing if the game is on 40. I am considering it strongly and would in a heartbeat if everyone would stick together.

RickJ
Rickjshandicappingpicks.blogspot.com

Sat

Nothing close today

rickj

Friday

I know this is getting old...but nothing again today. Hopefully we will get some good
setups soon.

Another email while we are waiting:

"good, disciplined blog rick.
Have you been over to the M hotel/book yet?
I've heard some good things.."

Yes I went to the M about a week after it opened. Very nicely done but
a bit out of the way for me to consider being a customer there. I have heard
the Japanese restaurant on the top floor is great...I do planning on checking that
out for sushi sometime soon.

RickJ
Rickjshandicappingpicks.blogspot.com

Thurs

We are back in full swing for the 2nd half of mlb. There is nothing close today....but I expect at least as many leans and plays for the 2nd half.

Also the world series is over and things will be much less hectic now. With that in mind I will start responding to a few emails I have received.

"Rick,

Been following your picks for awhile. Im going out to Vegas for the first time in years. I play offshore all the time. I called the Hilton because they comped me way back and said they would comp my room but I had to promise them that I would play tables a bit as well as sports LOL. I had a few questions:

1) Am I wasting my time playing there? They seem to only comp based on table game play. Since Im playing a good deal of money but mostly on sports, should I be establishing myself elsewhere to set up future trips?

2) Where will I have the best experience watching games? The Hilton was nice but I take it you can suggest where Ill have most fun since Ill only be there Friday nt and Saturday?

3) Im guessing I still will only be able to watch the one Fox game on Saturday until the night games no matter where I go?? Had that problem last time. Maybe that's where Ill play crapsor BJ or something?


Thanks for all your help. Keep the picks comin. I appreciate it all."


My Response:

I have some firm ideas regarding comps and casinos. Years ago if you were sharp you could really take advantage of the comps since you could play at a positive ev in blackjack and get everything comped with not a lot of heat.

Today things are much different. Comps are based upon your play and they figure out what they expect to make off of you and you dont get much more back then part of that. Now lets say you are an expert blackjack player and expect to breakeven or make a little and also get comped. Well......they have pretty much eliminated that. The track players play so that if you play much more then an hour at a table they can peg you pretty fast as a counter.

Also even assume you get by the security variance is high on table games.

Combining the above with the fact there are some incredible deals now for rooms in vegas I wouldnt bother with being comped. Its just not worth it.

Most of the hotels have great sports books for viewing games. The best I have seen is off the strip at the red rock hotel. But they all have pretty good viewing areas. If your looking to watch games drink and party....the palms is considered a great party place with some nice bars.

Hope that helps.

RickJ
Rickjshandicappingpicks.blogspot.com

Monday

Nothing scheduled today but lets recap the 1st half of the baseball season.

MLB Plays 09 season
Home Sides 0-3 -3.00
Away sides 2-7 -3.80


MLB Leans 09 season
Home Sides: 8-7 +2.49
Away Sides: 9-12 +0.76
Totals: 1-1+0.00

We had 50 leans and plays for the 1st half of the season resulting in -3.55 units. We really have been behind the whole first half of the season with the worst of it being around -10 units.

Usually the 2nd half of the season produces more overlays since the public tends to favor teams that have to win.

We will see....but we are definately not out of it at all for a positive 2nd half of the season.

The nfl season is not far away and I am considering the idea of letting people buy a percentage of me in the various contests.

My thoughts at this time are to first sell stakes in the Hilton contest which is 1500 buy in. If you wanted a 10 percent stake you would invest 20 percent. I will only sell up to 1500 which will give out 50 percent of any winnings.

If this goes well...then there are two other contests...1000 for the station casinos and 2500 for the southcoast nfl contest.

If you have an interest I will prepare a form to be signed by both of us and you can pay via paypal.

Just drop me an email if you are interested.

RickJ
Rickjshandicappingpicks.blogspot.com

Sunday mlb play

Nothing the last few days but today 1 play in mlb

cleveland +195

967 CLE - T Ohka
968 DET - Verlanderv

RickJ
Rickjshandicappingpicks.blogspot.com

Sat plays

Nothing again today

Rickj
rickjshandicappingpicks .blogspot.com

Friday plays

Nothing close today

rickjrickjshandicappingpicks.blogspot.com

Thurs plays

We lost our lean on pitt in mlb Wed. Today nothing close to a lean or
a play.

I was tempted to put on some swing trades mid session on Wedn and it would of worked
out. My preference is to place these when the market is oversold and there is a gap down
on the open. Its much easier to manage the trades and seems to provide higher probability setups.

It appears to me the market is through with the correction and should steadily move to the 980 area on the SP500. You should take this lightly though since predictions on the direction of the market are tough!

RickJ
Rickjshandicappingpicks.blogspot.com

Wedn mlb lean

We lost our lean on kc on Tues. Today there is again one lean in mlb

Pitt +157

951 PIT - C Morton
952 HOU - W Rodrigez

The stock market opened up this morning and has now sold off. I may put on some swing trades later today since the market is oversold and there are 3 stocks I have on my radar that are extremely oversold.

If not later today then perhaps tomorrow morning with a down open.

RickJ
Rickjshandicappingpicks.blogspot.com

Tues mlb lean

One lean today in mlb

kc +185

919 KAN - B Chen
920 DET - Verlander

We are now out of both our swing trades. tgt was sold this morning at 37.50 for a +256 gain +.68%

That brings us to 8-0 on our swing trades.

RickJ
Rickjshandicappingpicks.blogspot.com

sold tgt

Out at 37.50

RickJ
Rickjshandicappingpicks.blogspot.com

twitter

I have received a number of emails requesting being able to follow posts on twitter....my twitter account name is rickjsportsplays

recap

We made 816.00 on the day trade in wag today. That comes to 2.11 percent.

We have about a .50 percent gain in tgt. I am holding the stock overnight. If we still have a gain in the stock at the open I will be exiting that trade shortly after the open.

Nothing in baseball tonight.

RickJ
Rickjshandicappingpicks.blogspot.com

out at 29.46

Sold wag at 29.46

Rickj
Rickjshandicappingpicks.blogspot.com

sell wag just before close

I will be selling wag just before the close. I will post on here the price I get.

tgt will be an overnight trade and if its positive at the open tomorrow will be selling shortly after the open

RickJ
Rickjshandicappingpicks.blogspot.com

Monday

Nothing looks very good today in mlb. There are 2 games that could develop later
so If anything does I will follow up later in the day.

This morning I was looking to buy 1000 tgt at the open if the market gapped down. It gapped
down and tgt was down also. Usually I wait a bit to make sure breath isnt over 10-1 on
the negative side which takes a few minuites. That few minuites was enough to allow tgt
to rally almost 1.00!!! But then later as the market settled back tgt dropped and allowed me to buy 1000 at 37.22. As I write this tgt is trading at 37.42. Right now it looks like tgt will be an overnight trade but you never know.

Wag was purchased this morning at 28.63. Its trading now at 28.91. There is a good chance if the market rallies we will be out of wag at the close today.

I was going to go in and play poker this morning but with $66,000 invested in 2 swing trades I guess I will stick around to monitor the trades today.

I have had several emails regarding either texting the trades in the morning and/or emailing.
I can do this but only if there is a sufficient enough interest.

Email if your interested in receiving the swing trades via txt or email.

RickJ
Rickjshandicappingpicks.blogspot.com

another

1000 wag 28.63

RickJ
Rickjshandicappingpicks.blogspot.com

swing trade

a wild morning but purchased 1000 tgt 37.22

RickJ
Rickjshandicappingpicks.blogspot.com

sunday plays

Nothing close today...sorry for the delay.....

RickJ
Rickjshandicappingpicks.blogspot.com

sat plays

We lost our play on toronto Friday...today nothing close to a lean or a play.

There are a few stocks that are very oversold. If we get a gap down at the open there is a very strong chance I will be putting on at least 1 swing trade.

If your following these be sure and check in the morning shortly after the open.

Also for those of you that want plays emailed or text messaged to your phone ..just leave me an email and I will put you on the list.

RickJ
Rickjshandicappingpicks.blogspot.com

friday plays

Today 1 play in mlb

Toronto +170

917 TOR - B Tallet
918 NYY - A Burnett

I guess I will have to wait until Monday for the swing trades:) If we get a lower open monday there are a few stocks there are very oversold here. I will post Monday morning if I execute a swing trade.

RickJ
Rickjshandicappingpicks.blogspot.com

thurs plays

We won with Oakland +110 on Wedn. Today there is nothing close to a lean or a play.

Also with this down day in the market if it stays down and we get a lower open Friday be on the lookout for some swing trades.

RickJ
Rickjshandicappingpicks.blogspot.com

wedn mlb lean

We won our san fran +180 play on tues...and today we have a lean:

Oakland +110

923 DET - Verlander
924 OAK - D Braden

RickJ
Rickjshandicappingpicks.blogspot.com