wedn

Nothing the last few day and nothing much today although there could be an nba lean tonight but nothing even close in the nhl.

I will update later today if anything becomes clear.

RickJ
Rickjshandicappingpicks.blogspot.com

Tues

Nothing Monday and today there is the possibility of a nhl pick. I will update later
if it becomes clear.

Another email:

"Last year you had a great run at the beginning of the college hoops season with totals, before the books adjusted. Are you saying there will be no such plays this season, even if they present themselves?"

My response:

It was a great run and how much was variance and how much was weakness in the numbers is not known. I do know after the 1st 3 weeks whatever worked didnt anymore.

Since the method I used last year wasnt proven but just an off the cuff system that worked out..and since there is no way for me to back test it I wont be doing it again this year.

In addition the time spent in working the totals up daily is enormous! In addition one of the variables I looked at wasnt put out early so that made it all the more difficult.

Finally most books dont put out totals the first few weeks of ncaa baskets until about 30 min before game time.

All that adds up to my not doing it again this year.

That being said I have uncovered a sub set in the sides that looks promising and will put out the picks as they develop similar to the other sports. This will be the first year I have used this subset but its the only one so far that I have found that seems worth handicapping in ncaa baskets.

RickJ
Rickjshandicappingpicks.blogspot.com

Monday

Well...we ended up with our lean on San Jose st getting blown out so a 1-2 weekend in ncaa fb.

The good news is that my contest picks went 4-1 in both the hilton and stations. Another few weeks like that an I might be in danger of cashing:) My record in the hilton is 53.33% and in Stations 57.77%

Today nothing much I can see.

In the nfl game tonight I received the following email:

"Rick, why would the line on the NFL tonight move in the opposite of the public? Seems a lot of bets on Pitt but the line went from -3 to as low as -1.5 at 5dimes. Any thoughts?"

My thoughts:

Usually what this means is that the "smart money" is on the dog but the public is all over the favorite. The problem with applying that in tonights game is that the move is too large and you are coming off the strongest key number in the nfl. You would be taking too much the worst of it to take less then 3.

I prefer to look at a small move against the way the public is betting that dosnt involve a key number and is no more then a 1 point move. Half point is much better.

This game was not even on my radar as being a potential play so I am passing on the game.

RickJ
Rickjshandicappingpicks.blogspot.com

Sunday ncaa fb lean

We split on our leans Sat with Akron winning outright But Iowa state getting blown out.

Today Nothing I can see in the nfl. But a lean in tonights ncaa fb game.

San Jose St +14

RickJ
Rickjshandicappingpicks.blogspot.com

Leans vs Play

I get a lot of email regarding the difference between a lean and a play. The answer is there really isnt much difference. My handicapping techniques have evolved over the last 3 years to where I have isolated what I consider subsets of the betting universe for each sport that I feel have a positive ev.

I have eliminated totals and now just handicap the sides. In addition the one sport that
I havnt gotten a handle on yet is ncaa baskets. I cannot find any subset consistent enough to wager on in that sport.

What this means is from here on out there will be fewer picks. Since I am only going to put out the games that fall under the various subsets I have set up.

Now to answer the question ...when I look at a subset of games I then have other variables I look at to then consider the game a play or a lean.

A play is where everything points to that side and a lean is all but 1 variable.

The difference is minor and my unit value is the same on both.

So to sum up.....I start with a subset of games that I feel overall has a positive ev. I then start my handicapping from that subset of games. So that what I feel are only the clearest from the subset make the pick.

The biggest variable to start out with is what the public is doing. That is the primary consideration in determing games that fit a subset...not the only one but the primary one. The threshold however is different for each sport.

I hope that clears things up:)

RickJ
Rickjshandicappingpicks.blogspot.com

Sat ncaa fb and nfl contest picks

Nothing the last few days but today some leans in ncaa fb.

Iowas State +7.5
Akron +3.5

Ncaa football 09-10
Plays 3-1-1 +1.95
Leans 9-5 +3.80

There is a 5:00 game that might become a pick so check back around 4 or so.

In the nfl my contest picks are in the order I liked them at the time:

Washington +10
Tamba Bay +10
Kansas City +6.5
Miami +10.5
Arizona +3

In the Hilton contest I am 50% and Stations 55%. I am going to have to put in a great
2nd have to have a chance to cash in either contest.

Good Luck

RickJ
rickjshandicappingpicks.blogspot.com

Friday

I have been waiting thinking a few plays might become
clear but so far nothing . If anything develops I will
update later.

Nothing for sure in the football game tonight

rickj
rickjshandicappingpicks.blogspot.com

thurs

We lost our nhl lean on phoenix on Wedn. Today nothing close to a play or a lean anywhere. There is an outside chance that something may develop in the nhl later..but
I doubt it. I will update later if something shows up.

RickJ
rickjshandicappingpicks.blogspot.com